Thesis Tracker

Features

• Manages investment theses for portfolio positions and watchlists
• Maintains a scorecard for pillars, catalysts, and conviction level
• Supports tracking of specific market types (US, crypto, CEDEARs, bonds)
• Outputs a structured thesis health summary with alerts
• Handles both new thesis creation and existing thesis updates

Use Cases

• Use when needing to track the performance of long or short investment positions.
• Use when managing a watchlist and wanting to document rationale and key drivers.
• Use when a catalyst or risk event requires an update to an existing investment thesis.
• Use for quarterly reviews of portfolio positions to ensure thesis integrity.

Non-Goals

• Executing trades or managing broker accounts.
• Providing financial advice or recommendations.
• Replacing a full portfolio management system.
• Tracking general market news unrelated to specific theses.

Workflow

1. Load or create a new investment thesis, collecting details like ticker, direction, core thesis, pillars, risks, catalysts, target price, stop-loss, and position size.
2. Maintain a running scorecard for each pillar, tracking its original expectation, current status, supporting evidence, and trend.
3. Log new data points, including the date, event, impact on pillars, action (hold/add/trim/exit), and updated conviction level.
4. Track catalyst dates and their expected impact.
5. If applicable, track AR-specific details for CEDEARs, bonds, or CCL/MEP.
6. Output a thesis health summary, including key information, conviction level, pillar/risk status, next catalyst, and alerts.